So it looks like the vote goes to #1: the horseshoes lace. I'm happy with this decision because: 1) it's a smaller repeat and so easier to incorporate increases and decreases for shaping and 2) the holes are smaller, so it at least has the appearance of being a bit more modest.
I did all the math, and then totally ignored it when I cast on, because if I learned anything from working with this yarn before, it is that it grows and stretches like crazy. Swatches lie!
I have one vertical repeat done, and then did something monumentally stupid last night: poured boiling water from the kettle onto my left hand. So I don't think I'll be knitting for a couple days.
The hand's all right, though. I was at the kitchen sink, so I had it under running cold water almost immediately. Then I sat with it in a bowl of water while The Limey ran out to the late night pharmacy to get one of those spray gel things for burns. I think I reacted quickly enough, because there's barely even blisters today, just a lot of skin that looks like it's splitting and going to peel.